AT LAST it’s here. No more Cheltenham previews. No more posturing. Let’s get down to business and try to find some winners. The Cheltenham Festival will probably start with the most testing conditions for several years. That’s, of course, if it passes a 10.30am inspection although officials remain bullish that racing will go ahead. But we won’t really know what the ground is like until the frost covers are removed this morning. The times of the first two races will be informative: if they are more than four minutes then it will be fair to say the ground is testing. The best advice is to stick to animals who handle soft ground and who have the necessary stamina to get up that famous hill. So first up here are some horses who WON’T relish the conditions…
Arkle: Overturn.
JLT Chase: The Package is much more effective on decent ground.
Champion Hurdle: Grandouet, Rock On Ruby, Cinders and Ashes and Binocular. On the flip side Zarkandar will like the ground and Hurricane Fly won’t mind it at all!
Rewards4racing Chase: Vulcanite prefers decent ground. So does Carlito Brigante.
1.30: Supreme Novices Hurdle: My Tent Or Yours may well hose up. But I can’t have him at such a short price. Melodic Rendezvous was my ante-post tip but has sadly been scratched due to a bad scoping. So it’s PUFFIN BILLY for me. He is great value if recapturing his best form and will like the ground. If you’re seeking something at a big price to pinch a place then you could do worse than CAUSE OF CAUSES. The latter is as hard as nails and 33/1 is worth an each-way tickle. (William Hill are offering each way the first five).
2.05: Racing Post Arkle Trophy: The soft ground won’t help Overturn but he should still run a big race. There is no getting away from Simonsig and if you got a good ante-post price then you will probably be rubbing your hands. In the spirit of looking for some value, ARVIKA LIGEONNIERE is a fascinating runner and 8/1 is tempting. He jumps well, will stay every yard and will love the ground.
2.40: JLT Specialty Chase: Now then, this is a proper handicap. The Irish raider White Star Line catches the eye near the bottom. But slight preference is for FRUITY O’ROONEY who was second last year and would be a deserving winner. He is 1lb lower than 12 months ago and has been running well. He loves Cheltenham and Jamie Moore is riding at the top of his game. For a big price each-way fancy, NUTS N BOLTS is progressive and could run well for Lucinda Russell.
3.20: Stan James Champion Hurdle: Easy one this. The moment ZARKANDAR gave away lumps of weight to win the Elite Hurdle at Wincanton in November, he became my Champion Hurdle horse. He will relish the soft ground and is only one of a few in the field who will. Grandouet and Rock On Ruby have never won on proper soft ground, while Binocular, Cinders and Ashes and Countrywide Flame would also prefer a better surface. Hurricane Fly is a worthy favourite but the ground could blunt his speed and I expect Zarkandar to grind his way to victory. I wouldn’t put anybody off having an each-way nibble on the two rags in the race: Khyber Kim and Balder Success, both of whom will handle the ground.
4.00: Glenfarclas Cross Country Chase: I normally avoid this race like the plague but ARABELLA BOY jumps out, based on his win at Punchestown. The only negative is that he got rid of Nina Carberry over the course back in November. Bostons Angel would have a huge chance if finding his old novice form while you cannot discount Uncle Junior.
4.40: OLBG Mares Hurdle: I hope Quevega completes the five-timer. She is a wonderful mare and a joy to watch. I expect UNE ARTISTE to push her hard and she is reasonable value at 6/1. With Quevega such a warm order, there is plenty of each-way value including Swincombe Flame and She Ranks Me.
5.15: Rewards4Racing Novices Handicap Chase: The most wide open race of the day. I’ve plumped for HOWARD’S LEGACY more in hope than anything else. But he will stay, will like the ground and does not look harshly treated.
Who is your Tuesday banker?
